Investor Return Model Calculator

Assumptions

Investment Amount ($)

Current Company Valuation ($)

Holding Period (years)

Advanced assumptions (optional)

Dilution at Exit (%)

Preference / Structure Haircut (%)

Transaction Costs (%)

Conservative Exit ($)

Base Exit ($)

Strong Exit ($)

Aggressive Exit ($)

Moonshot Exit ($)

Discount rate is used for present-value discounting and hurdle checks. In Risk-Adjusted mode, a lower rate (e.g., risk-free + modest premium) is often more appropriate than a full VC hurdle.

How to read this: Absolute view frames single-company upside. Portfolio view applies historical pre-seed base-rate assumptions for expected-value underwriting across many investments. Portfolio math and founder conviction can coexist: the model uses historical base rates for investor underwriting, while management believes execution probability is substantially above those historical averages.

Discount Rate (risk-adjusted, annual %)

Historical Base-Rate Assumption (%)

0.67%Implied ownership

$0Base-case expected proceeds

0%Base-case IRR (conditional)

$0Base-case expected NPV

Return MultipleExit Valuation ÷ Current Valuation

IRR(Multiple)^(1/Years) − 1

Present ValueFuture Value ÷ (1 + Hurdle)^Years

Net Proceeds Factor(1−Dilution) × (1−Preference Haircut) × (1−Tx Costs)

Continuous Exit Scenario

Exit Value: $2,000,000,000 · IRR: 0% · Expected Proceeds: $0

IRR vs Exit Value Curve

Scenario	Exit Value	Multiple	IRR	Hurdle Check	Your Proceeds (conditional)	Expected Proceeds	PV Exit	PV Stake	NPV	Expected PV Stake	Expected NPV

Note: simplified model assumes no additional dilution, liquidation preferences, or follow-on rounds beyond the optional assumptions. Probability-adjusted values are expected-value estimates, not forecasts. Use this as scenario framing, not legal/valuation advice.

Glossary (click to expand)

Investment Amount — Dollar amount invested today.

Current Company Valuation — Assumed current equity valuation used as denominator for ownership and multiples.

Holding Period — Number of years between investment date and exit event.

Required Return / Hurdle — Minimum annual return target used for pass/fail comparison and discounting.

Exit Value — Assumed company valuation at liquidity event (acquisition/IPO/secondary).

Probability of Success — User-defined chance of achieving the modeled exit outcome (default 6%, midpoint of the 3-9% thesis range).

Implied Ownership — Investment Amount ÷ Current Company Valuation.

Return Multiple — Net proceeds multiple after dilution/structure/transaction assumptions.

IRR (Internal Rate of Return) — Annualized return implied by conditional net proceeds over the holding period.

Your Proceeds (conditional) — Investment Amount × Return Multiple.

Expected Proceeds — Conditional Proceeds × Probability of Success.

PV Exit — Present value of assumed exit valuation discounted by hurdle rate.

Expected PV Stake — PV Stake × Probability of Success.

Expected NPV — Expected PV Stake − Investment Amount.

Hurdle Check — Whether scenario IRR exceeds required return.

Base Case — Default central scenario ($2B exit) highlighted for quick reference.